Where Are Markets Today?
U.S. and European stock market futures are trading lower on early Tuesday morning, 3rd March 2026. The futures markets for the S&P 500 index are trading 0.5% to 0.6% lower. The Nasdaq 100 index is also trading lower by a similar extent. Dow futures are trading over 200 points lower. Similarly, the European markets’ Euro Stoxx 50 index, DAX index, and FTSE index futures markets are trading lower. The market is trading lower today primarily because of the geopolitical risks emanating from the Iran conflict. The conflict is creating uncertainty among investors.
The first factor is the geopolitical risks emanating from the Iran conflict. The recent operational announcements and the projection of the conflict lasting several weeks have created uncertainty among investors. The crude oil prices have also risen on the back of the conflict. The conflict is creating geopolitical risks for the Middle East region. The geopolitical risks emanating from the conflict on the crude oil prices pose a significant threat to the overall market situation. The crude oil prices rising on the back of the conflict is creating uncertainty among investors. The crude oil prices rising on the back of the conflict is a significant threat to the overall market situation. The crude oil prices rising on the back of the conflict is creating uncertainty among investors. The geopolitical risks emanating from the conflict on the crude oil prices pose a significant threat to the overall market situation.
The second major factor that affects the positioning in futures is macroeconomic sensitivity. Recent macroeconomic data have reflected sustained growth with rising input costs and mixed messages on labor markets. This supports the thesis that we are in a slow-growth, inflationary world. This situation suggests that investors should not take risks in advance of key inflation data and earnings reports. European futures are also sensitive to currency and rate moves given the inflation surprises in the eurozone that could affect the European Central Bank’s policy stance. Investors are grappling with geopolitical tensions and monetary policy uncertainty. This suggests that investors should be defensive ahead of the market on both continents.
At Zaye Capital Markets, we believe that this synchronized move in US and European futures reflects a recalibrated risk appetite rather than panic selling. Markets have been conditioned to buy the dips in recent weeks, but sustained geopolitical tensions along with inflation-related energy pressures are now driving a more cautious approach. Until we have clarity on the length of the conflict, the stabilization in energy prices, and the trajectory of inflation, we expect that futures will remain sensitive to these headlines.
Major Index Performance as of Tuesday, 3 Mar 2026
- Nasdaq: Trading near 22,748, reflecting the overall resilience of the AI-related technology stocks despite the policy headwinds.
- S&P 500: Trading around 6,882, reflecting the support from the stabilization of the energy sector and the mega-cap stocks.
- Russell 2000: Trading near 2,445, reflecting the overall weakness of the small-cap stocks that are rate sensitive.
- Dow Jones: Trading near 48,905, reflecting the support from the industrial stocks.
The Magnificent Seven and the S&P 500
The Magnificent Seven, comprising Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, Meta, Alphabet, and Tesla, remain the main drivers of index-level movements. However, the ongoing semiconductor export talks, geopolitical risks, and valuation recalibrations are increasing the overall sensitivity of the stocks. In particular, Nvidia and AMD face allocation risks, Apple and Alphabet are developing deeper integrations of AI, and Amazon continues to face disruptions. Therefore, the significant index weightage of the stocks makes even the smallest multiple compressions significant drivers of the S&P 500 direction. However, the overall participation outside the mega-cap technology stocks remains limited.
Drivers Behind the Market Move – Tuesday, March 3, 2026
While the U.S. and European markets continue to react to the latest geopolitical developments, fresh economic data focusing on inflation concerns, and the latest movements in energy prices, the overall market sentiment is still cautious yet reactive.
1. Escalating Iran Conflict and Policy Signaling
Once again, the main driver is the escalating conflict dynamics with Iran. The latest statements by the president on the strikes being the “last best chance,” the confirmation of additional operational waves ahead, and the projection of a four- to five-week duration have clearly increased the geopolitical risk premiums. The latest intelligence reports on retaliatory threats also add to the overall uncertainty. The markets are clearly pricing the risk of a prolonged conflict rather than a short-run military conflict. This is clearly visible through the increased oil prices, safe-haven flows, and defense stocks, along with the negative impact on rate-sensitive and consumer-focused sectors. The European markets are naturally more sensitive to the duration risk embedded in the latest Iran conflict reports.
2. Energy Price Surge and Inflation Transmission
The recent move in crude oil, which is being driven by increasing concerns about the route and infrastructure of crude oil, is directly impacting inflationary expectations. This is a key factor that is making the situation more complex for the central banks of the United States and Europe. Investors are becoming increasingly worried that a rise in energy costs could delay the easing cycles of these economies, which is impacting equity markets, especially in the growth space. This is why we are seeing a relatively bearish tone in the market today.
3. European Inflation Data and Fiscal Indicators
The focus is shifting to today’s key economic releases, which include the EUR Core CPI Flash Estimate, EUR CPI Flash Estimate, and the GBP Annual Budget Release. If the inflation numbers are released above and beyond investor expectations, this could potentially result in a strengthening of the dollar and a negative impact on equity markets, especially rate-sensitive stocks. Similarly, if the inflation numbers are released below and below investor expectations, this could potentially result in a weakening of the dollar and a positive impact on risk assets. In terms of the UK, the budget is a key economic release that is likely to impact investor sentiment. An expansionary fiscal measure is likely to positively impact growth stocks, but a contractionary measure is likely to positively impact bond yields. Investors are adopting a wait-and-watch strategy before today’s key economic releases, which is why we are seeing a relatively mixed and cautious futures trade today.
In summary, the interplay between escalating geopolitical risk, energy-driven inflation concerns, and key European economic data releases is shaping today’s market environment. Until clarity emerges on conflict duration and inflation trajectory, volatility is likely to remain elevated and leadership concentrated in defensive and commodity-linked sectors.
Digesting Economic Data
The TRUMP Tweets and Their Implications
The latest round of presidential commentary and White House announcements appears to be raising the escalation narrative, particularly with regards to the ongoing conflict with Iran. The constant discussion of removing threats “once and for all,” referring to the strikes as “the last best chance,” and indicating that a larger operation, publicly referred to as “the big wave,” is potentially still to come has certainly altered the geopolitical landscape. The acknowledgment of several Iranian vessels being sunk, in addition to the threat of a four- to five-week engagement, serves to heighten the narrative of a more prolonged engagement. Intelligence briefs indicating potential retaliation also serve to heighten this narrative. For financial markets, this serves to heighten the risk of prolonged instability in the region, which is known to contribute to increased volatility in energy, defense, and safe-haven asset groups. Furthermore, the apparent flexibility in terms of operational timeline and the acknowledgment of the possibility of ground troops being deployed adds another layer to the risk assessment. In this respect, when a leadership team publicly acknowledges that objectives are subject to change and that operational timelines are subject to change, this is interpreted as a signal that geopolitical risk is a dynamic and not a static risk. This serves to reduce visibility with regards to global trade flows, shipping patterns, and commodity supply chains. It also serves to heighten capital flows to sectors that are likely to benefit from increased defense spending and to weigh on sectors that are sensitive to energy costs and international shipping.
Apart from the conflict itself, the concurrent White House communications with the Senate on nominations, international engagement through the United Nations, and internal policy communications imply the continuation of other governance objectives alongside the conflict narrative. Nevertheless, the markets are only focused on the conflict narrative. As the objectives appear to change during the initial stages of the conflict, as implied by recent market commentary, this creates a level of policy unpredictability. As a general rule, markets address unpredictability through increased risk premiums, higher levels of liquidity risk, and overall risk asset positioning.
From a macro perspective, the repeated narrative on the need for Iran not to be allowed a nuclear weapon, alongside the narrative on the conflict itself being necessary and decisive, decreases the probability of a rapid de-escalation through diplomatic means during the short term. As long as the overall narrative continues on the need for continuation rather than resolution, the overall impact on the energy markets, defense markets, and overall volatility will continue to be impacted by each and every narrative. At Zaye Capital Markets, we believe the overall narrative is one that continues to support a geopolitical risk environment.
Manufacturing Expands as Cost Pressures Surge
February’s ISM Manufacturing PMI report revealed a slight easing in the index, falling to 52.4 from 52.6, marking the second straight month that the index has expanded above the 50 threshold. While the overall report remains positive, the overall tone has become slightly more nuanced, with new orders falling to 55.8, indicating that the demand growth, though positive, has begun to slow. This suggests that the overall manufacturing sector is benefiting from existing order pipelines, rather than accelerating new order growth. From the standpoint of the equity markets, this suggests that overall industrial production remains stable, though the outlook for accelerating revenue growth remains less certain.
The most significant aspect of the report was the sharp acceleration in the prices paid index, rising 11.5 points to 70.5 from the prior reading of 59. This acceleration could be attributed to the impact of tariffs, which could be causing cost pressures. In any case, rising input prices can be a negative for profit margins, unless the company has the ability to pass along pricing. On the flip side, the employment index remained in contraction, falling to 48.8, suggesting that manufacturers are focusing on efficiency rather than employment growth.
From the standpoint of the overall economy, we believe that the industrial sector, while stable, remains a positive for the overall economy, and based on this, we would recommend the stock, Honeywell International Inc. (HON), which we believe remains undervalued based on its diversified industrial exposure and automation-driven revenue model. With exposure to aerospace systems, industrial automation, and energy efficiency, the company benefits from the overall manufacturing expansion while limiting the negative impact of labor intensity through the use of technology. With exposure to a wide range of end markets, the company also benefits from partial insulation from regional demand slowdowns.
Payrolls, Credit & Hiring Trends in Focus
This week, the economic calendar will feature February data releases that will impact the market’s perception of the sustainability of the economy and the need for interest rate action. Market participants will be interested in the ISM Manufacturing PMI, as well as non-farm payroll data, which are both leading indicators for the economy. Specifically, the focus will be on whether the manufacturing sector continues to expand and whether the non-farm payroll report beats the previous month’s 226,000 jobs created. If the non-farm payroll report surprises the market with a stronger employment gain, it could boost market participants’ perception that the labor market remains robust, which could prolong the time before the Fed eases monetary policy. On the other hand, if the report disappoints, it could fuel market participants’ fears that the economy might be losing some steam, especially with the latest surveys suggesting that the economy might be facing mild contractionary pressures.
Challenger Job Cut data, which is projected to rise to 117,835, will be an indicator that corporate layoff announcements are rising compared with the previous month. This could be a sign that corporate cost control measures are becoming more aggressive. On the other hand, the Consumer Credit report, which previously showed a $24.0 billion expansion, could provide some clues on whether the economy remains robust, with the implication that consumers are borrowing more. If the Consumer Credit report shows that borrowing remains strong, it could be a sign that the economy remains active despite the rise in borrowing rates.
In this macro backdrop, we believe that JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) is undervalued relative to its capital strength and diversified earnings base. As long as payroll growth remains positive and credit growth continues, large-cap financial institutions with robust balance sheet positions should be able to derive stable earnings from loan growth and risk management discipline. Analysts should focus on trends in net interest income, credit loss provision, and management’s discussion around the sustainability of loan growth. In a data-driven market environment, financial companies that trade at a discount to normalized valuation multiples have strategic upside potential when economic data confirms trends of strength, rather than weakness.
Hormuz Oil Flows Raise Supply Shock Risk
The significance of the Strait of Hormuz to the global energy landscape is underscored by the energy flow statistics. In 2025, Saudi Arabia exported around 5.4 million barrels of crude oil daily through the Strait of Hormuz, which accounted for almost 40% of the total volume passing through the strait. China alone imported around 4.6 million barrels of crude daily through this route, which equates to almost 85% of the total exported by Saudi Arabia. As the Strait of Hormuz plays a vital role in the transportation of 20% of the total global petroleum liquids, a problem here would affect the entire system.
In the face of increasing geopolitical tensions in February 2026, Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports rose to 7.3 million barrels per day as the country used alternative routes to West Africa and the Mediterranean to ship its oil. Short-term disruptions may lead to a 20-30% increase in prices, thus increasing input prices in transportation, petrochemicals, and manufacturing sectors. Although high North American shale oil production and strategic reserves may offer a degree of insulation, any sustained volatility may revive inflation concerns at a time when policy stability is precarious.
In this context, we believe Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) appears undervalued relative to upstream leverage and capital discipline. Exxon, being a diversified energy producer, enjoys the benefits of higher crude oil realizations and has downstream and chemical exposure to mitigate earnings volatility. Strong balance sheet flexibility and commitment to shareholder returns make it a defensive play in a volatile supply environment. Analysts must carefully consider the company’s production growth, capital expenditure, and free cash flow resilience in a range of scenarios. If supply risk persists in sustaining high crude oil prices without a corresponding fall in demand, integrated energy leaders are strategically placed to deliver earnings outperformance.
Stock Market Performance
Major Indexes Remain Stable, Yet Drawdowns Continue to Highlight the Unsteady Nature of the Overall Market
The overall stock markets have proven resilient in their rebound since the lows of April 8th, 2025. However, the disparity in the performance of the indexes and the overall members of those indexes continues to highlight the unsteady nature of the overall markets. While the indexes have proven strong in their overall rebound, the drawdowns of the overall members of the indexes highlight the overall fragility of the markets. The key is understanding the overall performance of the indexes and the overall members of the indexes. The following is the breakdown based strictly on the latest figures.
S&P 500: Flat Year, Strong Rebound, Narrow Breadth
YTD: 0% | +38% since 4/8/25 low | -3% from YTD high | Avg. member: -12% YTD high | -22% since 4/8/25 low
The overall S&P 500 is flat year to date but has rebounded an impressive 38% since the lows of April 8th. The overall drawdown from the year to date high is only 3%. However, the overall drawdown for the average member of the index is -12% from the year to date high and -22% since the April 8th low.
NASDAQ: Strongest Rebound, Deepest Internal Damage
YTD: -2% | +48% since 4/8/25 low | -6% from YTD high | Avg. member: -26% YTD high | -46% since 4/8/25 low
The NASDAQ has risen 48% from the trough in April, the strongest rally among the main indexes. However, it has fallen 2% so far this year and has fallen 6% from its YTD highs. More worrying is the average member drawdown of 26% from YTD highs and 46% since the trough in April.
Russell 2000: Positive YTD, Volatile Underneath
YTD: +6% | +50% since 4/8/25 low | -5% from YTD high | Avg. member: -18% YTD high | -34% since 4/8/25 low
The Russell 2000 has the strongest YTD gain among the indexes, rising 6%. It has risen 50% from the trough in April. However, volatility in small caps is a worry, as evidenced by a 5% maximum drawdown in the index from YTD highs, and average member drawdowns of 18% and 34%.
Dow Jones: Defensive Strength with Moderate Volatility
YTD: +2% | +30% since 4/8/25 low | -3% from YTD high | Avg. member: -10% YTD high | -18% since 4/8/25 low
The Dow Jones shows a 2% gain year-to-date and a 30% rebound from April lows. A modest -3% drawdown from YTD highs reflects relative stability. However, average member drawdowns of -10% and -18% confirm that even defensive segments are not immune to volatility.
At Zaye Capital Markets, we remain focused on breadth indicators, balance sheet durability, and earnings visibility. While index recoveries are significant, sustained upside requires broader participation beyond headline leaders.
The Strongest Sector In All These Indices
Energy Dominates Year-to-Date While Utilities Lead Monthly
As shown in the above chart, which represents all sectors within the S&P 500, the sector that has demonstrated the strongest performance on a year-to-date basis is the Energy sector, which has gained 24.4% year-to-date, significantly outperforming all other sectors represented in the chart. The next best performer is the Materials sector, which has gained 17.6%, followed by the Consumer Staples sector, which has gained 16.0%, and then the Industrials sector, which has gained 14.0%. The Utilities sector has gained 11.3% year-to-date, while the Real Estate sector has gained 9.1%. On the other hand, the Financial sector has declined by 6.3%, while the Information Technology sector has declined 5.6%, and the Consumer Discretionary sector has declined 3.8% year-to-date. The S&P 500 Index has gained only 0.5% year-to-date, indicating that the Energy sector has significantly outperformed the broad market.
On a month-to-date basis, while the leadership has changed slightly, it remains positive for the sectors that have demonstrated relative strength. The Utilities sector has demonstrated the strongest performance, gaining 9.9%, while the Energy sector has gained 8.8%, followed by the Materials sector, which has gained 8.3%, then the Consumer Staples sector, which has gained 7.9%, and finally the Industrials sector, which has gained 7.0%. The Real Estate sector has gained 6.2%, while the Health Care sector has gained 3.4%. On the other hand, the Financial sector has declined 3.8%, while the Communication Services sector has declined 5.1%, the Information Technology sector has declined 4.0%, and the Consumer Discretionary sector has declined 5.4%. The S&P 500 Index has declined 0.9% month-to-date, indicating that the sectors that have demonstrated relative strength have continued to perform strongly.
As a firm, we believe that the 24.4% gain in the Energy sector, combined with its 8.8% gain month-to-date, demonstrates that the sector has continued its relative strength and has not experienced a one-time move. While the Utilities sector has demonstrated very strong relative strength with a 9.9% gain month-to-date, it has not demonstrated the cumulative strength that the Energy sector has shown.
Earnings
Earnings Recap – 02-Mar-2026 (Yesterday)
- Bank of Ireland Group Plc reported full-year 2025 profit before tax of €1.4 billion (or €1.39 billion in some reports), with net income of approximately €1.2 billion and earnings per share of 114.8 euro cents, down 19% year-over-year. Net interest income declined 5.6% to €3.37 billion from €3.57 billion, while total fee income rose 7% year-over-year. Non-interest income increased 3.5% to €808 million. Operating expenses climbed 3.3% to €2.16 billion and impairment charges rose 57% to €193 million. Adjusted return on tangible equity stood at 13.9% (16.3% excluding the UK motor finance provision). The CET1 ratio remained strong at 15.1%, and shareholder distributions totaled €1.2 billion including dividends and buybacks.
- AES Corporation posted full-year revenue of $12.233 billion, slightly down from $12.278 billion year-over-year, with net income available to common stockholders of $900 million or $1.26 per share, down from $1.679 billion or $2.36 per share previously. Q4 revenue rose 4.7% to $3.1 billion, with Q4 gross profit up 38.6% to $582.0 million and Q4 operating profit rising 55.5% to $513.0 million. However, Q4 net income attributable to common shareholders showed a -$2.0 million loss, and Q4 diluted EPS of $0.45 declined 43% year-over-year.
- Core Scientific Inc reported Q4 revenue of $79.8 million, down from $94.9 million year-over-year. Q4 gross profit improved to $20.8 million from $4.8 million previously. Q4 net income reached $216.0 million, swinging from a $291.1 million loss year-over-year, primarily driven by a $330.3 million non-cash fair value gain on warrants and contingent value rights. Q4 adjusted EBITDA (non-GAAP) was -$42.7 million versus +$13.3 million previously, with adjusted EPS at -$0.29. Liquidity at year-end stood at $533.4 million.
- Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd. delivered fiscal Q3 2026 revenue of $407.0 million, up 51.9% quarter-over-quarter and 201.5% year-over-year. GAAP gross margin was 68.5% and non-GAAP gross margin 68.6%. GAAP net income reached $157.1 million, while non-GAAP net income totaled $208.8 million. GAAP diluted EPS was $0.82 and non-GAAP diluted EPS was $1.07. Operating cash flow reached $166.2 million, with free cash flow at $139.7 million. Cash and equivalents totaled approximately $1.3 billion.
- MongoDB, Inc. Class A reported fiscal Q4 2026 total revenue of $695.1 million, up 27% year-over-year. Subscription revenue reached $673.1 million and services revenue totaled $22.0 million. Q4 gross profit was $507.7 million, representing a 73% gross margin. GAAP net income was $15.5 million or $0.18 per share, while non-GAAP net income was $142.7 million or $1.65 per share. Full-year revenue reached $2.46 billion, up 23% year-over-year, with Atlas revenue up 29% year-over-year.
- Riot Platforms, Inc. reported full-year 2025 revenue of $647.4 million, up from $376.7 million year-over-year. Bitcoin mining revenue totaled $576.3 million versus $321.0 million previously, with engineering revenue at $64.7 million. Gross profit reached $302 million. The company mined 5,686 bitcoins during the year. Q4 revenue was $152.83 million, slightly missing estimates, while Q4 EPS reflected a -$2.03 loss per share. Liquidity exceeded $1.9 billion.
Earnings Preview – 03-Mar-2026 (Today)
- Target Corporation results will be closely monitored for comparable sales performance, gross margin stability, inventory positioning, and forward guidance on consumer demand trends, particularly in discretionary categories.
- AutoZone, Inc. will provide insight into comparable store sales growth, gross margin resilience, and demand trends within automotive aftermarket spending, serving as a gauge of consumer maintenance behavior.
- Viking Holdings Ltd will reflect booking strength, occupancy trends, pricing yield management, and forward demand visibility across global travel routes.
- ASM International N.V. will offer semiconductor equipment cycle clarity through order intake, backlog levels, revenue guidance, and commentary on advanced node and AI-driven capital expenditure demand.
- CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. Class A will be assessed on subscription revenue growth, annual recurring revenue expansion, operating margin progression, free cash flow generation, and forward guidance on enterprise cybersecurity spending.
Stock Market Overview – Tuesday, 3 Mar 2026
The US stock market is experiencing a dynamic trading session with geopolitical tensions rising, discussions on chip exports to China, the acceleration of AI innovation, and sector rotations. Initial selling in the US stock market was driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and rising energy prices. However, the tech sector and AI innovation stocks have managed to absorb the selling pressure. Currently, the US stock market is driven more by capital concentration than overall market participation. At Zaye Capital Markets, we observe strength in leading stocks but underlying weakness in the market.
Stock Prices
Economic Indicators and Geopolitical Developments
The geopolitical situation is affecting the overall market position in the US stock market. Currently, energy infrastructure and logistics are facing geopolitical tensions. Also, the US stock market is witnessing rising tensions in oil prices. These tensions are affecting overall inflation and rate volatility. Meanwhile, US officials are considering capping Nvidia’s H200 chips sold to Chinese customers at 75,000 units per buyer. Additionally, AMD MI325 chips are also part of this allocation program. These chips are part of a total allocation program worth 1 million chips to Chinese customers. This move could affect the overall revenue split in the semiconductor industry.
Latest Stock News
- Defense stocks and drone security stocks have experienced significant inflows in the US stock market. Ondas Holdings ($ONDS) gained over 20% in the US stock market after its Iron Drone Raider platform gained traction in the evolving drone threat landscape.
- AeroVironment ($AVAV) fell by around 25% after its intraday high following a double downgrade due to the Space Force’s decision to re-compete the $1.4 billion SCAR program, its largest program of record. This highlights the risk of contract concentration and the company’s valuation sensitivity to defense procurement visibility.
- Advanced Micro Devices ($AMD) launched its Ryzen AI 400 and Ryzen AI PRO 400 processors at MWC 2026. This extends its product line in the AI PC segment, which is projected to increase at a compound annual growth rate of around 40% through 2030. This represents an extension of edge AI capabilities to desktop computing environments.
- Apple ($AAPL) launched a new iPad Air with an M4 chip, which boasts a 50% increase in RAM and faster Neural Engine performance to support larger AI computations. Apple’s potential to use Google ($GOOGL) cloud infrastructure for its next-generation Siri represents a strategic deepening of its ecosystem with Google and potentially strengthens Google’s position in the preferred infrastructure provider for AI solutions.
- Telecommunications innovation was seen in comments by AT&T ($T) management regarding direct-to-device satellite connectivity, which represents a transformative development in this space. This represents validation of AST SpaceMobile ($ASTS) and its over 50 partnerships with mobile network operators worldwide, covering over 3 billion subscribers and around 1,150 MHz of secured spectrum. AST SpaceMobile aims to reach around $1 billion in annual revenue by 2027.
- JPMorgan ($JPM) management publicly acknowledged the long-term risk of reduced labor requirements due to productivity gains achieved through AI. This represents long-term operating leverage potential in the financial services space.
- Berkshire Hathaway ($BRK.B) saw a rare single-day loss in market capitalization of around $50 billion.
- SoFi, or SOFI ($SOFI) CEO Anthony Noto bought 56,000 shares at $17.88 after the financial services firm saw a record quarterly membership gain of 1 million new members.
- Nebius ($NBIS) integrated Tendem, a Toloka-based solution, to empower AI agents to seek human expert opinions on critical decision-making, thereby providing solutions to the reliability issues that affect the deployment of enterprise AI.
- Opendoor ($OPEN) announced 4.99% 30-year fixed mortgages with no points and lender fees to boost housing demand at a time when rates are rising.
- Amazon ($AMZN) acknowledged that drone strikes damaged three of its facilities, thereby introducing an element of risk to the global logistics infrastructure.
The Magnificent Seven and the S&P 500
The Magnificent Seven, comprising Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, Meta, Alphabet, and Tesla, remain the main drivers of index-level movements. However, the ongoing semiconductor export talks, geopolitical risks, and valuation recalibrations are increasing the overall sensitivity of the stocks. In particular, Nvidia and AMD face allocation risks, Apple and Alphabet are developing deeper integrations of AI, and Amazon continues to face disruptions. Therefore, the significant index weightage of the stocks makes even the smallest multiple compressions significant drivers of the S&P 500 direction. However, the overall participation outside the mega-cap technology stocks remains limited.
Major Index Performance as of Tuesday, 3 Mar 2026
- Nasdaq: Trading near 22,748, reflecting the overall resilience of the AI-related technology stocks despite the policy headwinds.
- S&P 500: Trading around 6,882, reflecting the support from the stabilization of the energy sector and the mega-cap stocks.
- Russell 2000: Trading near 2,445, reflecting the overall weakness of the small-cap stocks that are rate sensitive.
- Dow Jones: Trading near 48,905, reflecting the support from the industrial stocks.
At Zaye Capital Markets, we believe that the overall environment remains selectively positive, though structurally narrow. In particular, AI infrastructure, defense, and energy stocks remain the main drivers of the overall capital flows. However, the ongoing policy risks, geopolitical tensions, and valuation compressions remain the main factors that limit the overall upside until broader participation occurs.
Gold Price: How Do Geopolitical Escalation and Inflation Data Impact Gold Price?
The spot price of gold is trading above $5,300 per ounce on Tuesday, 3rd March 2026. Gold prices have been holding near historic highs amid escalating safe-haven flows in global markets. The geopolitical situation in the Iran conflict has escalated with confirmation of expanded strike phases, flexible military timetables, and a promise of a more intense operational wave to come. These have caused a significant increase in geopolitical risk premiums. Markets are not only reacting to the situation but also to the probability of sustained instability in the near future. These tensions have also raised concerns about energy supply disruptions, especially in areas critical to transit routes. This has also caused a rise in inflation expectations due to rising energy prices. Under these market conditions, gold prices are benefiting from two major demand sources: geopolitical risk premiums and inflation premiums. At the same time, upcoming European inflation figures including EUR Core CPI Flash Estimate and EUR CPI Flash Estimate are also making markets sensitive to these results. If these figures come in higher than expected, then the prospects of delayed monetary policy easing could keep real yields volatile and sustain the structural attractiveness of gold prices.
The economic signals that were highlighted yesterday are a reflection of this environment of cautious accumulation. For example, the manufacturing numbers that were released highlighted a moderating momentum, which is creating a great deal of uncertainty about the durability of economic growth. In this environment, when growth is slowing down but inflationary pressures remain robust, investors traditionally move to asset classes that are considered to be more resistant to the risk of stagflation, which is what we are seeing in the premium levels of gold. In addition, fiscal announcements such as the GBP Annual Budget Release will also have a bearing on the volatility of currencies and, by extension, the gold price. In this environment, where risk-off is being fueled by security briefings, operational updates, and continued conflict commentary, asset managers are becoming more aggressive in their positioning of gold as a result of capital preservation strategies. In this ecosystem, the positioning of gold is not a reflection of speculative excess but rather a reflection of a real environment of uncertainty, inflationary demand, and volatility management.
Oil Prices: Why Are Oil Prices Rising Amid Iran Tensions and Inflation Data Risks?
Oil prices are currently trading at $72-$73 for Brent crude, based on Tuesday, 3rd of March 2026, while WTI crude futures are holding firm in the upper $60s, reflecting the geopolitical risk premium that persists, based on the current geopolitical tensions, alongside the short-term supply conditions that are currently very tight. Prices have experienced wild swings intraday, based on the announcements and updates regarding the military engagement and operations regarding the Iran tensions, particularly based on the announcements regarding the extended timeline for military engagement and the possibility of additional strike waves, which have heightened the risk of disruptions of key energy shipping routes, particularly the ones passing through the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for one-fifth of the global petroleum shipments. This alone warrants a structural risk premium for crude futures. At the same time, the market commentary noted through the major financial news flows emphasizes the reality that even without the disruptions, the shipping insurance, rerouting, and stockpiling factors can temporarily impact the available supply of crude oil, but the price declines occur based on the focus of the market players on the medium-term fundamentals, including the consistent growth of non-OPEC supplies and the structural projections of balanced inventories later this year.
The economic releases of yesterday have introduced a secondary sentiment layer. While the manufacturing releases have registered growth, they have also indicated increasing costs. This is a positive factor for crude in the short term, as the increasing energy costs will support the inflation hedge effect of crude. Nevertheless, the weaker employment and business outlook components of these releases are a dampener. These releases are expected to affect the price today, as Europe is expected to announce inflation and fiscal releases. In the event of a higher-than-expected inflation release, the price is likely to move upwards due to the currency effect and the inflation hedge effect. In the event of a lower-than-expected release, the price is likely to move downwards. In this context, the price of crude is not entirely driven by consumption growth, but is more likely driven by a probability-weighted effect of geopolitics, inflation, and the response of governments.
Bitcoin Prices: Why Is Bitcoin Holding Near $68K Amid War Headlines and Macro Data Shifts?
As of Tuesday, 3 March 2026, Bitcoin is trading near $68,600, stabilizing after a sharp weekend drawdown triggered by escalating U.S.–Israel–Iran conflict headlines. During peak volatility, BTC briefly lost early gains as geopolitical risk intensified, with broad crypto market capitalization contracting significantly before buyers emerged near lower support levels. The ability to hold above $68,000 despite direct war rhetoric — including comments signaling extended strike timelines, possible ground troop scenarios, and warnings of a more intense operational phase — suggests that traders are increasingly distinguishing between short-term headline risk and structural digital asset demand. Technical commentary highlights that Bitcoin’s rebound off key support zones may open the path toward higher resistance levels near $69,500 and potentially toward the $72,000–$79,000 range if momentum builds. At the same time, ETF outflows have reportedly slowed, and on-chain data indicates that long-term holders are reducing distribution pressure, creating a more balanced supply-demand backdrop. However, the ecosystem remains sensitive to liquidity conditions, global risk appetite, and cross-asset volatility, particularly as traditional safe-haven flows have favored gold during the most intense geopolitical moments.
Yesterday’s economic data also influenced overall sentiment. Manufacturing expansion combined with rising input costs reinforced a “sticky inflation but slower growth” narrative, which typically weighs on high-beta assets like cryptocurrencies. When inflation pressures persist while growth signals moderate, risk appetite often tightens temporarily, limiting aggressive crypto upside. Looking ahead, today’s European inflation releases could further shape direction. Hotter-than-expected CPI prints may reinforce risk-off positioning, strengthening the dollar and suppressing Bitcoin’s upside in the short term. Conversely, softer inflation could ease macro pressure and encourage reallocation into risk-sensitive assets, potentially accelerating bullish technical setups already forming. In this environment, Bitcoin is behaving as a hybrid asset — reacting initially like a risk instrument during geopolitical escalation, yet regaining footing as traders assess liquidity dynamics, ETF flows, whale accumulation patterns, and broader macro stabilization signals.
ETH Prices: Is Ethereum Set to Breakout as ETF Flows and Whale Activity Change?
On Tuesday, March 3, 2026, Ethereum (ETH) is trading at around $2,020. The cryptocurrency appears to have stabilized just above the critical $2,000 psychological support zone. This comes after recent price action was affected by the general volatility in the broader cryptocurrency space due to rising levels of geopolitical tension. In the recent trading sessions, Ethereum has demonstrated strong resilience in the face of rising levels of conflict-driven market volatility. This comes after each time the cryptocurrency fell to the support zone, fresh buying interest emerged. In the recent trading sessions, Ethereum appears to have been in a consolidation phase rather than a distribution phase. This comes after trading volumes have risen in recent days. However, it appears Ethereum is trading below major resistance levels. However, the fact that it has been able to hold support in the face of macro-level uncertainty points to rising levels of liquidity in the broader cryptocurrency space. In recent days, ETF flows within the last week have seen Ethereum exchange-traded funds record fresh inflows after a period of sustained outflows.
Whale activity recorded within the last week has introduced complexity to the price structure of the Ethereum ecosystem. Data from on-chain analysis indicates that some of the addresses that had been selling off their assets at different times are slowing down the rate at which they are doing so. In the meantime, some of the whale addresses that had been accumulating at the lower price bands are buying, hence the reduced net exchange inflow. This has ensured that the ETH price does not fall further below the $2,000 mark. However, the overall situation indicates that the ETH price might be at a critical point. In the current geopolitical situation, inflation rates, and overall risk appetite, the ETH price can be regarded as a high-beta risk asset with emerging structural support. In the near future, the situation might change, and the ETH price might test some of the resistance levels.
