Where are markets today?
European and U.S. stock futures are posting modest gains Thursday morning in a mixed set of conditions shaping investor sentiment. S&P 500 futures are +0.12%, Nasdaq 100 futures are +0.17%, and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are +38, or +0.09%. The movements followed a flat day of trading in the S&P 500 on Wednesday, a 0.3% gain in the Nasdaq Composite, and a 0.3% drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Despite the mixed showing, all three indexes are poised for a weekly gain, with the S&P 500 still less than 1% below its record high set in February.
Two key reasons explain the current market position. First, the de-escalation in the Middle East, in particular the Israel-Iran ceasefire, has removed fears about potential disruption to global oil supplies. President Trump’s declaration of a ceasefire has provided a short-term boost to investor mood. Secondly, market participants are monitoring economic data, including the forthcoming final GDP print and unemployment claims, for any signal of the health of the U.S. economy. While some experts remain cautious about the sustainability of recent gains in financial markets, the combination of geopolitical stabilisation and economic data releases is underpinning cautious optimism in markets. European markets open more cautiously. The Euro Stoxx 50 index falls 0.74%, and the UK and French major indices also decline. The cautious tone comes from ongoing concerns about trade policy and growth in the region. The European Union is split about how to approach trade negotiations with the United States, with some leaders urging rapid deals, while others insisting on better terms. These domestic disagreements add to the uncertainty, and as such, European investors become more cautious.
In general, the U.S. futures are posting minor gains as the European markets are experiencing a pullback. The record is a balancing act between economic and political indicators, as investors are expecting more clarity on either side. Throughout the day, market players will be closely monitoring the releases of major economic data and how new events in international relations will influence market dynamics.
Major Index Performance as of 26 June, 2025
- S&P 500: Finished the day at 5,916.93, up 0.3% on the day.
- Nasdaq Composite: Closed down by 0.2% at 13,784.50, ending a six-day winning streak.
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: Rose 0.7% to close at 38,650.00, its first gain in three days.
- Russell 2000: Finished at 2,092.10, up slightly. Down 5.7% for the year to date.
The Magnificent Seven and the S&P 500
The S&P 500 has been able to hold, thanks to the strong performances of the so-called “Magnificent Seven” of big tech giants. They consist of names like Nvidia, Apple, and Microsoft, which have all benefited from advancements in artificial intelligence as well as solid earnings reports. But even with those gains, the broader market is giving off warning signals. Retail investor interest that fueled past rallies is losing steam. Without new money from this group, analysts say, it would be difficult to sustain the uptrend.
Drivers of the Market Shift
These forces of the market are presently being driven by a sequence of geopolitical events, economic data announcements, and commentary that shape opinion. The mood is positive, but caution remains the byword. Market participants are following events intently, which set direction and tone for the near term.
- Geopolitical Relief: Israel-Iran Ceasefire Eases Tensions
Among the impetus for the current bullish market sentiment is the Israel-Iran ceasefire agreement. Regardless of the truce beginning on shaky ground with President Trump’s negative remarks on the breach, the hope is that the deal will hold. This reduction in geopolitical risk premium, particularly in oil markets, has done much to assuage supply disruption concerns in the area. The 6% drop in crude oil prices is being seen as a relief, supporting global equity markets and soothing investors. The stability in crude has assisted in lifting sentiment in a wide range of sectors significantly.
- Trump’s Military Policy: Raising Tensions and Market Volatility
Despite the temporary relief provided by the ceasefire, Trump’s continuous saber-rattling regarding military readiness is sending jitters to the market. His aggression towards Iran, with the very possibility of military intervention on the table, is igniting fear of further geopolitical tensions. Historically, this sort of rhetoric will get investors into safe-haven assets like gold and Bitcoin. That risk-aversion sentiment is having its effect on overall market stability, as investors are hedging against the threat of escalations in the region.
- Powell Testimony: Fed’s Strong Stance Provides Some Clarity Federal Reserve
Chairman Jerome Powell’s rhetoric over the past few weeks has offered direction to the markets, reaffirming the central bank’s commitment to curbing inflation while allowing flexibility. Powell’s promise to keep interest rates steady for the time being has calmed investors, removing the fear of an abrupt shift in policy. The dovish approach has allowed the markets to recover some of their gains, offering hope despite inflation concerns. Powell’s middle-of-the-road approach provides a breathing space, with investor optimism improving amidst the current global uncertainty.
Digesting Economic Data
The Trump Tweets and Their Implications
Recent comments and tweets by now President Donald Trump on NATO, defense expenditures, and foreign policy have generated a great deal of controversy, and market implications go beyond geopolitical risk. Trump’s repeated insistence that NATO defense expenditures have to reach 5% of GDP and that the U.S. is still the military leader of the world have been interpreted by many as a plus for defense stocks and U.S. defense contractors. His comments are in favor of adherence to U.S. power everywhere in the world, which translates into defense expenditures—especially by NATO countries—continuing to rise. Aerospace and defense companies, especially those that sell sophisticated equipment and weaponry, stand to benefit.
Trump had stern words to express concerning U.S. action in the Middle East, and more notably the Iran-Israel situation, where he emphasized the reaction of the U.S. military and his administration’s policy concerning not letting Iran proliferate nuclear weapons. His promise that Iran will never have nuclear weapons “under his watch” is consistent with previous hardline stances of maintaining ongoing U.S. hegemony and stability in the region. These words have the ability to move oil prices, as any escalation of tensions in the Middle East has a tendency to lead to volatility in energy markets, namely crude oil. With the U.S. very much involved in maintaining peace and security in the region, oil prices could spike on supply disruptions, particularly if geopolitical risks intensify. Additionally, Trump’s statements about rearranging NATO and his insistence that European nations are “no longer freeloading” on American defense programs demonstrate his “fairness” theme among global alliances. By accusing NATO nations of their previous aversion to spending on defense, he sets the stage for increased economic and military cooperation, namely in defense technology. This may result in increased spending on US defense contractors, which would drive share prices higher for stocks like Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, and Northrop Grumman. This may also further fuel geopolitical tensions, which may lead to increased investment in safe-haven assets, including gold and Bitcoin, as markets react to the heightened tensions.
For broader market implications, Trump’s comments threaten to repeat America-first policies that would have a tendency to support U.S. defense contractors and domestically focused sectors. Second, his aggressive approach towards Iran and increased NATO involvement would have the tendency to bolster market mood towards globally instability-sensitive assets such as energy and precious metals. The increased uncertainty over international relations and defense expenditures is likely to drive volatility, and investors will need to observe closely how it plays out geopolitically. The risk of increased military actions or additional sanctions on nations such as Iran would put pressure on markets to more defensive positions, which would affect stock and commodity prices in the near term.
Stagflation Signs Rise As Supply Shock Intensifies
The broadening divergence of the Philadelphia Fed Services Index—defined by declining new orders and still elevated prices paid—testifies to stagflation pressure. This development illustrates a demand shock within the framework of sticky inflation due to 2025 U.S. tariffs that introduce frictions into global supply chains. Such frictions are the structural headwinds of the 1970s that contribute to the risk of low growth with high input costs—a dynamic that makes policy responses and corporate margins more difficult.
The economic divergence now shows up visibly into equities. While headline indices are managing to hold up, there is underlying weakness cumulative underneath. Service sector stocks are most vulnerable to margin compression. Consumer staples and utilities, nevertheless, are seeing undervaluation form-up—a defensive sector usually taken for granted during inflationary squeezes. These stocks enjoy relative pricing power and are historically more resilient during stagflationary periods.
We think pricing power, inventory turns, and supply chain exposure need to be examined more closely by the analyst community. Keep a close eye on forward guidance; downgrade risks are warranted if inflation gets ahead of demand recovery. The market’s next rotation could favor those groups that have stable cash flows and domestic input dependency. We’re setting up for relative outperformance in those names with good dividend history and low volatility metrics within the staples and infrastructure universe.
Housing Market Shows Initial Warning Signs
The 0.4% April 2025 decline in the FHFA Home Price Index, which was the single-biggest month’s fall since August 2022, was an indication of a fundamental shift in homebuyer attitude. The cooling is a delayed response to higher interest rates, and it validates a 2023 Federal Reserve study that found every 1% rate hike can reduce home prices 3–5%. The pinch on housing is typical of an across-the-board tightening cycle where costs of borrowing and affordability are now running into consumer restraint, stifling new buying demand.
Defying global trends, such as 2024’s 8.7% increase in Dutch house prices, the US market is decoupling. That divergence is being driven by homegrown economic problems—such as persistent inflation and 2025 tariffs that have increased the cost of imported construction materials. They are constricting builder margins and pricing out prospective buyers. With declining starts and lower resale volumes, home supply contracts as demand eases, creating an unstable balance with bearish price momentum.
We at Zaye Capital Markets are eagerly awaiting the downstream impact of the housing market on equity markets. Those stocks exposed to residential construction, home improvement, and mortgage origination are most at risk. Undervaluation is, however, materializing in REITs in logistics, storage, and digital infrastructure where secular trends are propelling demand. Analysts will keep a close eye on changes in regional housing data, builder confidence surveys, and mortgage delinquencies. They can be early markers of economic moderation more broadly.
CAPEX Collapse Sends Recession Signal
The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey shows 6-month investment spending expectations plummeting sharply—at its lowest level since February 2009. It is a mirror image of how things were at the onset of the Great Recession and shows manufacturers scaling back on spending on investment amid rising uncertainty. The trend also shows that there is diminishing confidence at the industrial level, contrary to the belief that economy weakness is only short-lived and local.
To compound all these concerns, U.S. BEA statistics confirms the 5.2% YoY drop in Q1 2025 manufacturing capex, led by elevated input costs (+2.7%) and slack in the labor market. Such constraints are compressing margins, delaying expansion plans, and testing productivity. The capex reduction is not only affecting equipment orders, but also forecasting declining confidence in output growth—making Federal Reserve’s soft landing policy more challenging.
We view this retracement in Zaye Capital Markets as a signal of general economic weakness. Historically, such capex declines—such as occurred in 2008—have been followed two to three quarters later by GDP declines. Expect order weakness in machinery and industrial sectors, analysts should. Relative undervaluation may emerge for some defensive automation and tech stocks that underlie cost-reduction, when capital-light approaches gain favor in a tightening environment.
Changing Work Patterns Signal Potential Economic Inflection
The Philadelphia Fed Services Index is posting its initial labour divergence in history: full-time hiring declined into contraction, but more were being hired part-time. The flip, also evident in June 2025, indicates that firms hire more flexible labour than they add full-time staff. It’s a deviation that usually precedes episodes of economic austerity when, for fear of nebulous demand, service-sector employers, especially those at consumer-sensitive firms, hold in check fixed costs on employment. It’s a revealing gauge that price pressure, margin sensitivity, and expectation of forward earnings are all being recalibrated.
Unlike general fear of pervasive job insecurity, past trends at the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis suggest that involuntary part-time work remains under 1% in most jurisdictions. This would suggest that the surge into part-time work is largely due to voluntary entry or shifts in business models rather than sheer labor desperation. However, the trend is a departure from past cycles and possibly an indicator of an increasingly flexible, gig economy where demand for services persists but labor stability declines. This quiet trend can potentially be covering over underlying consumption and housing softness.
In Zaye Capital Markets’ view, this divergence is a strategic shift that may be a precursor to more general softening in economic conditions. In conjunction with May’s sharp 13.7% decline in new home sales, it is indicative of early-stage dislocations to watch. Part-time wage growth, household income trends, and services sector PMI prints are a few of the items that analysts need to watch. We view potential undervaluation in workforce solutions and healthcare staffing firms that fit into this flexible employment cycle, with high-fixed-cost service operators potentially at risk of downside if consumer resilience weakens.
Job Sentiment Gap Hints At Looming Labor Weakness
June 2025 figures from The Conference Board indicate that the “jobs plentiful” minus “jobs hard to get” measure declined sharply to 11.0—a record low since mid-2020—and together with an unemployment rate of 4.2%. This is an underlying trend of weakening of the labor market contrary to strength at equity markets at the moment. The divergence implies rising household uncertainty even on the back of headline jobs strength, making assumptions of consumer-led growth later in 2025 more complicated.
While similar troughs were also experienced in 1996 and 2005, which were followed by final recoveries, this current composition is unique in that it follows post-2024 softening of labor market conditions, and not firming. Rising costs, tightening company budgets, and global policy uncertainty are now holding back labor confidence. To the extent that such compression continues, hiring plans would retreat at precisely the same time that inflation-adjusted consumption slows, raising the risk of cyclic weakness for labor-sensitive industries.
We consider tightening labor sentiment spread at Zaye Capital Markets to be an indicator of recession. Peer review analysis is always linked to such downtrends and also relates to rising unemployment 6–12 months forward. We suggest that analysts follow closely readings of JOLTS series, trends for real-wage and consumer credit trends. There is potential for undervaluations to arise among non-cyclical jobs services and some digital learning platforms that provide work flexibility and sectors relying on high-turnover staff tending to underperform if this weakness continues through into freezes on hiring.
Housing Market Swept Towards Buyers As Prices Declin
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index measures -1.8% annualized decline in U.S. home prices in April 2025—a uncommon reversal after decades of consistent growth. Sliding demand from buyers and elevated interest rates are weighing down, revealing vulnerabilities in a market otherwise defined by aggressive pricing. The trend implies a potential resetting and not a dramatic fall but is still a shift in housing sentiment.
Historical precedent would justify such moderation. Price declines of this type are the result of cyclical slowdown after steep run-ups, as a 2023 NBER study held. Housing prices fell an average of 10–15% in earlier recessions, though the current trend lacks the velocity and volatility of a crash. Still, the slowing pace of appreciation is as clear a sign as one needs that speculative demand is waning, especially in overheated metro markets where affordability is being strained.
We at Zaye Capital Markets interpret the -1.8% signal as a shift into a buyer’s market because it is underpinned by mounting levels of inventory being loaded onto top listing websites. Transaction volume trends, price-to-income ratios, and mortgage delinquency are what the analysts must monitor to gauge downside risks. Suburban multi-family REITs that possess pricing power and strong lease renewal rates may find themselves undervalued, with urban housing demand continuing to level off with tighter credit.
Manufacturing Jobs Show Faint Growth Signs
The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index reveals U.S. manufacturing employment expectations remain contractionary after recently trending upward—below zero through June 2025. This reflects ongoing producer wariness in the face of high input costs and uncertain demand. Moderately better sentiment is a reflection of weakness in a sector experiencing structural slowdowns versus short-term volatility.
In the past, such contractions as 2008 and 2020 were harbingers of general economic distress. Nowadays, though, the trend is more toward secular industry trends: automation, offshoring, and decreased capital expenditures. A recent NBER paper in 2023 substantiates this, citing a longer-term decline in jobs in classic manufacturing strongholds. This rekindles fears that the present weakness will continue even as macro conditions return to normal.
We think there is less upside in labour-intensive industrials at Zaye Capital Markets but emerging value in robotics and high-end manufacturing equities. Analysts will be well advised to watch closely forward hiring plans, regional wages, and price paid indices. Any sustained recovery will depend on managing cost pressures and supply chain optimization. While that happens, capital-light businesses enabling reshoring and operational effectiveness may be good entry points in today’s climate.
Consumer Confidence Skyrockets Despite Macro Headwinds
The Conference Board reports a sharp drop to 24% in June 2025 in the percentage of U.S. consumers expecting worsening business conditions over the next six months. This represents a material attitude shift, reflecting resiliency in the face of global uncertainty, energy turmoil, and geopolitical tension. Consumers appear increasingly confident that inflation and policy threats can ease, supporting near-term expectations in the face of pervasive economic noise.
Historically, these gains in sentiment have resulted in spending recoveries. The Consumer Confidence Index, which started recording data in 1967, shows that optimism tends to drive 0.5–1% GDP expansion, as validated by a 2019 NBER study. This trend has a tendency to encourage more upbeat retail sales, service sector job creation, and credit growth. Therefore, early indications of consumer-led momentum have a tendency to offset business investment and export weakness.
We in Zaye Capital Markets see this rotation as an opportunity to re-examine consumption-driven equities. Optimism contrasts with subdued revisions by prognosticators on the basis of increased employer NICs and margin pressures, emphasizing potential regional discrepancies. Trends in retail sales, growth in revolving credit, and durable goods orders need to be monitored by analysts. Undervaluation is seen by us in focused consumer discretionary and travel-oriented names, particularly where pricing power and brand loyalty can offset cost volatility.
Price Reduction Prospect Indicates Manufacturing-Driven Disinflation
The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index reports a sharp drop in the 6-month price paid expectation, currently at about 1% annualized as of June 2025. This is a dramatic shift, reflecting that manufacturers are anticipating cost pressures to ease. Despite policymakers’ continued concern about inflation, this report suggests price deceleration could be gaining traction from the manufacturing economy.
This loosening is in line with improved supply chain performance. In a Deloitte report in 2024, there was a year-on-year fall of 2% in raw material delivery times to 81 days as of October 2024. This fall is a sign of leaner production chains and lower cost pass-through pressure. Along with softening price expectations, it challenges the view that supply bottlenecks are a primary cause of inflation.
We at Zaye Capital Markets interpret this downtrend as both evidence of weakening demand and supply normalization. As the Richmond Fed’s composite index is also in contraction (-9 as of May 2025), analysts will have to pay close attention to forward cost guidance, input price indices, and order volumes. Undervaluation can emerge in capital-efficient producers and input-sensitive sectors like packaging and industrial automation, which would benefit once the inflationary headwinds dissipate.
Stagflation Risks Rise As Current Account Deficit Remains Inflated
A sudden spike in “stagflation” talk, monitored since mid-2025, accompanies a steep 44.3% jump in the U.S. current account deficit to $450.2 billion in Q1 2025. The acceleration appears to be being driven by firms bringing forward imports in anticipation of tariffs, according to Augur Infinity data. The stagflation rise reflects growing concern about inflationary pressures within the backdrop of slowing growth, a dynamic that would squeeze family budgets as well as firm up overall economic momentum.
The fall in “tariffs” refers by June 2025, following an initial peak within the year, to the result of a January 2024 American Economic Review paper by David Autor. The paper confirmed tariffs in 2018-2019 to have slowed job gains while raising costs through retaliation. This goes against earlier assertions that tariffs raise domestic employment, their net economic impact growing more apparent.
We see the rising stagflation concerns at Zaye Capital Markets as a front-running indicator of shifting economic forces. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s restraint in embracing the potential inflationary and growth-suppressing effect of new tariffs adds to worry that such policies will strangle domestic growth while failing to yield the job benefits. Analysts must factor in the risk of global supply chain relocation and the net impact of tariffs on consumer consumption. Those with high import exposure and poor pricing power will see margins squeezed, while defensive assets will benefit as stagflation threats become realized.
Housing Market Shows Signs of Substantial Weakness
The 13.7% month-on-month drop in U.S. sales of new homes in May 2025 to 623,000 units is a sharp contraction not seen since mid-2022. The fall is worse than anticipated, with the elevated mortgage rates playing a significant role in contributing towards it, with the rates averaging 6.81% in June 2025 according to Freddie Mac. The high borrowing cost and narrowed affordability have actually slowed down buyers’ demand significantly, putting downward pressure on house prices.
This deceleration is accompanied by a rising inventory of unsold homes, which reached its 2007 peak of 507,000 units, a 9.8 months’ worth of homes on the market. The rise in housing inventory, along with the high construction costs—at least partially due to tariffs on building materials like steel and lumber that can add up to 10% to the price of buildings—has created a decelerating housing market. These forces are causing builders to lower prices, with 30% of builders saying they reduced prices in a June 2025 NAHB survey.
We view this information at Zaye Capital Markets as a harbinger of broader economic distress. Residential investment is a significant GDP driver, and the ailing housing sector is a precursor to potential Q2 2025 contraction. We recommend that analysts monitor the trends in domestic housing, as well as commercial property movements, that could see spillover from the decline of residential construction. We see that some REITs in the logistics and industrial properties space can be safe havens in the housing downturn, while homebuilders have to deal with mounting headwinds.
Upcoming Economic Events
As we move into a make-or-break week for the markets, several key economic indicators will be watched closely by investors for hints at the US and global economies’ health. Significant releases on GDP, unemployment claims, and factory orders will provide new readings of the pace of economic activity, while words from key central bank chiefs can shape market expectations. Here are some events to watch and the likely shift in market mood based on their outcomes:
BOE Governor Bailey Speaks
Bailey’s address will be a market focus, with his remarks potentially giving guidance on the policy path of the Bank of England in the short term, specifically in the context of rising inflation pressures and a challenging economic environment.
- If Bailey suggests a more hawkish tightening path, this might lead to a sterling rally, with bond yields potentially rising as markets price in a hawkish bias.
- Should his tone be dovish, either in the context of growth worries or underlying unwillingness to raise rates, sterling can weaken, with equities possibly gaining some risk-on support.
Real GDP q/q
The last GDP reading is among the most closely followed economic data points, and a surprise from the estimate would have important market implications.
- A stronger final GDP than the expected print would imply an economic performance well above expectations, and this would be cause for an equities rally as investors factor in further growth.
- A weaker final GDP print than anticipated would simply validate recessionary concerns and would lead to a risk flight, particularly in the cyclical growth-sensitive sectors.
Unemployment Claims
Claims present current information on the labor market, and surprises there will move markets in the blink of an eye.
- A sub-consensus number reading would indicate robust job growth, possibly reinforcing confidence in consumer spending and expansion, and this would most likely lead to more U.S. dollar appreciation, especially if investors think more Federal Reserve tightening is forthcoming.
- If claims rise higher than anticipated, however, it could be an indication the labor market is weakening, and this would trigger a flight to safety, with government bond and defensive stock demand increasing.
Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
Core durable goods orders is among the most significant leading indicators of business and manufacturing investment.
- A better-than-expected number here would mean businesses are optimistic about the economy and are willing to invest in long-term capital goods. This would be a sentiment boost for manufacturing and industrial stocks.
- A disappointing print will raise concerns of the slowdown in business investment and could be a negative for economic growth expectations and risk assets pullback.
Durable Goods Orders m/m
Core and overall durable goods orders give us a picture of consumer demand for big-ticket items like autos and appliances.
- If orders are above expectations, it would be a reflection of healthy consumer spending and robust economic health, and likely be a boost to equities.
- A below-expectations reading would be a reflection of weak consumer spending and be a detractor from GDP growth, and could lower stocks, particularly in consumer-sensitive areas.
Last GDP Price Index q/q
The Final GDP Price Index gives a snapshot of inflationary pressures in the broad economy.
- A beat that is higher than expected would be evidence of still sticky inflation, and would induce the Fed to stay on hold, or even step up, tightening plans. That would result in higher yields and a stronger dollar, and equities could be muted with inflation concerns sapping growth expectations.
- A print that is below expectation on the index would have just the opposite effect, soothing inflation concerns and supporting risk-on sentiment, which can benefit growth stocks and lower-rate-sensitive industries.
Pending Home Sales m/m
Pending home sales are an important leading indicator for the housing market.
- A number above expectations would suggest housing demand strength despite rising interest rates, and would be a supportive factor for housing and construction-related stocks.
- A number below expectations would suggest ongoing affordability issues and would be bearish for housing-related stocks, suggesting additional deceleration in residential investment and potentially overall economic growth.
ECB President Lagarde Speaks
Eurozone economic prospects will be guided by ECB President Christine Lagarde.
- The euro can strengthen if she suggests that the ECB is more resolved to tighten policy to offset inflation, and bond yields will rise.
- However, dovish communication suggesting caution because of growth concerns can lead to euro weakness and support risk assets globally as investors look for higher yields elsewhere.
All these occurrences will make a notable impact on market mood during next week. Whether or not the news surprises on the positive or negative side, the result will give investors an improved indication of the direction of the economy ahead and set the direction of markets, from equities to currencies and commodities.
STOCK MARKET PERFORMANCE
Markets Bounce off Lows, but Overall Weakness Remains
U.S. stocks continued their advance from mid-year lows as of recent June, posting new resilience in a faltering market. But the backdrop, however, remains that the continuity of volatility and drawdowns from highs is a reflection of ongoing vulnerability, a hint that calm in the overall market is not soon to come.
Below is a recap of important index performance:
S&P 500: Rally Continues, But Pressure Lingers Beneath
S&P 500: +4% YTD | +22% from 4/8/25 low | -19% from YTD high | Avg. member: -24%
The S&P 500 has posted a +4% return year-to-date, assisted by a +22% advance since the low in April. Despite the rally, the index is still -19% off this year-to-date peak, and since the average members are -24% off, the market still shows narrow leadership, which is a sign of underlying weakness.
NASDAQ: Tech-Led Rally Hides Broader Declines
NASDAQ: +3% YTD | +30% off 4/8/25 low | -24% off YTD high | Avg. member: -45%
While the NASDAQ is +30% over the April lows, its lackluster +3% YTD return reflects the underlying weakness in the tech space. The -24% high-to-low correction and average member drawdown of -45% reflect persistent weakness in high-growth, high-beta names that remain under duress.
Russell 2000: Small-Caps Remain Under Pressure
Russell 2000: -3% YTD | +23% off 4/8/25 low | -24% from YTD high | Avg. member: -37% The Russell 2000 index remains behind, -3% YTD after a +23% rally off a low. A -24% peak to trough correction and a -37% average member drop indicate ongoing investor apprehension, particularly for economically sensitive and less liquid small-cap stocks, indicative of more widespread hesitation in the market.
Dow Jones: Blue Chips Stand Firm, But Risks Linger
Dow Jones: +1% YTD | +14% since 4/8/25 low | -16% from YTD high | Avg. member: -23% The Dow Jones has been fairly steady with a +1% YTD gain and a +14% rebound from lows. Yet, it is still 16% below its highs, with the average member down -23%, which shows the tenacity of volatility even in the historically stable blue-chip stocks. This goes to show that even defensive sectors are not entirely immune from market volatility.
Overall, while the rebound from past lows is good news, the ongoing drawdowns and pervasive weakness across sectors are a sign that the market may not yet be out of the woods. Investors continue to be cautious, investing in sectors with stronger fundamentals and avoiding those that are still at risk of significant downside risk.
THE STRONGEST SECTOR IN ALL THESE INDICES
Industrials take the Lead in 2025 Sector Performance
While wider indexes are struggling with spotty gains and chronic drawdowns, there is one sector that stands tall above the rest: Industrials. Leading a strong double-digit year-to-date performance, Industrials have been the flat-out sector performance leader within the S&P 500 through 2025, besting other top-performing sectors with consistency.
Industrials: Thriving over Horizons
⚙️ Industrials: +10.1% YTD | +1.7% Month-to-date
Up to June 24, 2025, Industrial stocks have returned +10.1% YTD, remaining the strongest performing of all of the S&P 500 groups. The sector trend has continued with a +1.7% return for one month. Relative outperformance has been fueled by a variety of factors, including strong order backlogs, continued global infrastructure demand, and the sector’s defensive composition, which protected it from general market volatility.
Industrials have led the others by a significant margin, as Utilities (+7.7% YTD), Financials (+6.7% YTD), and Communication Services (+6.1% YTD) all trail behind. This only serves to highlight Industrials’ dominance in 2025, as the sector has benefitted from both cyclical and defensive tailwinds, one of the few positives of strength in a market in general marked by uncertainty.
With its outperformance and strong fundamentals, Industrials remains a sector to watch for the remainder of 2025, with infrastructure spending and supply chain resilience remaining tailwinds.
Earnings
Earnings Summary: June 25, 2025
Some of the major U.S. companies published their quarterly reports on June 25, 2025, posting mixed results by sector.
- Micron Technology Inc. (MU)
Micron saw its enormous spike in Q3 2025 with year-on-year revenue increasing 36.6% to $9.30 billion. EPS increased 463.3% to $1.69 as HBM chips destined for AI uses are in high demand. It predicts a 15% sequential revenue growth in Q4 to a record high of $10.7 billion.
- Paychex Inc. (PAYX)
Paychex reported a 10.2% increase in Q4 2025 revenue to $1.43 billion. Net income declined 21.8% to $297.2 million, and EPS declined 22.6% to $0.82. The company attributed the decline to acquisition-related effects.
- General Mills Inc. (GIS)
General Mills reported Q4 2025 net sales of $4.56 billion, slightly less than expected. Net income declined 8% to $2.3 billion. General Mills will concentrate on expansion of the pet food business and increased advertising and innovation expenditure to drive growth in fiscal 2026.
- Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (JEF)
Jefferies reported Q2 2025 net income of $99.1 million, down from $145.7 million in Q2 2024. This is because there was reduced activity in equity underwriting and capital markets.
- NovaGold Resources Inc. (NG)
NovaGold posted a Q2 2025 net loss of $54.3 million, or $0.15 per share, due to a one-time charge. The company pointed out its strong cash position and strategic initiatives that advance its projects.
- Quantum Corporation (QMCO)
Quantum reports Q4 and FY 2025 results on June 30, 2025. A huge turnaround is expected by analysts as EPS is expected to rise from a loss of $5.50 to a loss of $0.99 per share.
Earnings Preview: June 26, 2025
It’s June 26, 2025, and several companies will publish their quarterly earnings today, giving insight into many different sectors.
- Lindsay Corporation (LNN)
Lindsay is scheduled to release Q3 2025 results before the market opens. The Street estimates earnings per share of $1.36 and revenue of approximately $157.87 million. Investors are hoping to hear updates on the company’s irrigation and infrastructure equipment businesses and news about its strategic initiatives.
- Enerpac Tool Group Corp. (EPAC)
Enerpac will be reporting Q3 2025 results after the close. The EPS estimate is $0.47. Areas of interest will be the performance of the company’s hydraulic tool and equipment, gross margin, and any strategic growth initiatives.
- Concentrix Corporation (CNXC)
Concentrix reports Q2 2025 earnings today. Consensus revenue is estimated at $2.38 billion. Investors will be looking to see how the company is doing in its customer experience solutions and how the rest of the year is looking.
- National Beverage Corp. (FIZZ)
National Beverage is set to report earnings today. Investors will be watching the company’s operations in the beverage industry, such as sales trends, profitability, and whether it has any developments regarding its portfolio of brands.
These profitability reports will provide excellent insight into the performance and outlook for various industries, which will influence investor sentiment and market direction.
Stock Market Summary – Thursday, June 26, 2025
U.S. stocks are grappling with a nervous climate as investors weigh recent economic data, geopolitical uncertainty, and corporate earnings. While the “Magnificent Seven” techs continue to be the market’s engine, economic deceleration and trade concerns on a broad level persist.
Stock Prices
Economic Indicators and Geopolitical Events
Recent economic statistics indicated a slowing down of inflation with the Producer Price Index (PPI) posting a decline, and this has been an indication that wholesale prices are stabilizing. This has boosted hopes that monetary policy will be being altered by the Federal Reserve sooner than later. On the geopolitical side, the tensions between America and Iran are still running high, and this is contributing to market volatility.
The Magnificent Seven and the S&P 500
The S&P 500 has been able to hold, thanks to the strong performances of the so-called “Magnificent Seven” of big tech giants. They consist of names like Nvidia, Apple, and Microsoft, which have all benefited from advancements in artificial intelligence as well as solid earnings reports. But even with those gains, the broader market is giving off warning signals. Retail investor interest that fueled past rallies is losing steam. Without new money from this group, analysts say, it would be difficult to sustain the uptrend.
AI-Powered Growth Opportunities
Bank of America (BAC) issued an extremely bullish AI opportunity call regarding the potential that AI could drive $1 trillion of data center investment by 2030, with over $800 billion being invested in GenAI infrastructure. The same has created bullishness for AI-ecosystem related stocks such as Nvidia ($NVDA), Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing ($TSM), ASML ($ASML), Broadcom ($AVGO), Cloudflare ($NET), CrowdStrike ($CRWD), Palantir ($PLTR), AMD ($AMD), Microsoft ($MSFT), Google ($GOOGL), Amazon ($AMZN), NeuroBo Pharmaceuticals ($NBIS), ARM Holdings ($ARM), Oracle ($ORCL), and Alamos Gold ($ALAB).
Major Index Performance as of 26 June, 2025
- S&P 500: Finished the day at 5,916.93, up 0.3% on the day.
- Nasdaq Composite: Closed down by 0.2% at 13,784.50, ending a six-day winning streak.
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: Rose 0.7% to close at 38,650.00, its first gain in three days.
- Russell 2000: Finished at 2,092.10, up slightly. Down 5.7% for the year to date.
In the near term, direction in the market will be dictated by the interplay between macroeconomic information and geopolitical tensions. In the meantime, market participants will be looking ahead to additional economic data and corporate earnings for guidance on the health of the economy and the room for policy action.
Gold Price
As of June 25, 2025, gold prices showed stability, with spot gold closing at $3,326.11 an ounce, a small increase from the previous day settle of $3,324.15. This comes after the relaxation of geopolitical tensions and ahead of upcoming U.S. economic data. The market anticipates the releases like the final Q1 GDP report, jobless claims, and durable goods orders closely, which can affect investor perceptions and the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset. Geopolitics are also part of the equation; while the Israel-Iran truce has eased short-term demand for havens, ongoing uncertainties in the Middle East region continue to underpin gold’s value. In addition, hopes of Federal Reserve interest rate reductions have made the U.S. dollar less strong, further boosting the attractiveness of gold. Investors must monitor these events since they could drive gold prices in the near term.
On the equities side, gold-related ETFs such as SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX), and VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) are trading quietly, reflecting the apprehension of the wider market ahead of key economic releases. The indications point towards a favorable backdrop for gold-related assets, which remain subject to other economic factors.
Oil Prices
On June 25, 2025, oil prices regained some ground after plummeting over two days. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil settled at just below $65 a barrel, with Brent crude around $68 a barrel. A government report indicating a sharp fall in U.S. crude inventories triggered the rebound and indicated tightening supply conditions. In addition, President Donald Trump’s declaration that America would continue to put pressure on Iranian oil exports improved market sentiment regarding likely supply constraints.
However, the market is cautious due to geopolitical risks and the release of economic data. Trump’s statement that China could still be permitted to purchase Iranian oil has provided uncertainty to U.S. sanctions policy, and market participants have responded in a mixed manner to the same. In addition, recent releases of economic data, including the Final GDP q/q and Durable Goods Orders m/m, were mixed in nature, with the GDP report indicating modest economic growth and durable goods orders recording a marginal decline. Such releases indicate a solid economic environment, which can support strong oil demand, but the softer durable goods orders can be a precursor to weakness in industrial activity in the future, which can affect oil consumption in the future.
Bitcoin Prices
As of June 26, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) trades at approximately $107,773, up 1.5% compared to the previous close. Intraday high was $108,146, and the low was $106,177. The increase is contributed to by a series of factors including institutional investment and bullish sentiment in the market. BlackRock’s acquisition of $430 million worth of Bitcoin and Michael Saylor’s firm statements have especially instilled confidence in investors. Furthermore, the recent ceasefire between Israel and Iran has reduced geopolitical tensions, contributing to the rising trend.
In the future, the value of Bitcoin is approaching important resistance levels. Traders closely watch the $108,900 level, which would be the gateway to a potential breakout towards $130,000, especially with the upcoming $20 billion options expiry. Market attention remains on macroeconomics and institutional adoption, which are still driving Bitcoin’s path.
Ethereum Prices
As of June 26, 2025, Ethereum (ETH) is at approximately $2,475.50, up 1.88% from the last close. The intraday high was $2,510.15 and intraday low was $2,404.81. The reason behind the spike is due to several reasons like institutional investments and positive market sentiment. BlackRock’s Ethereum ETF, for example, has risen to $4 billion in assets, reflecting strong institutional demand. One of the largest Ethereum whales also bought 3,704 ETH worth approximately $8.91 million, reflecting faith in the asset’s future performance.
In the future, Ethereum’s price is nearing significant levels of resistance. The $2,505 level is being closely watched by analysts, and a break above that would potentially signal a possible breakout at $2,600. Institutional adoption and macroeconomic conditions remain under the market’s observation, which are still dictating the direction of Ethereum.
