Markets Today
US and European stock futures are kicking off the last few days of 2025 in a stalemate—flat to slightly positive as markets prepare for one last burst of policy clarity before the dawn of 2026. The S&P 500 registered a record high of 6,945.77 on Friday before finishing just below breakeven, and futures markets are taking a wait-and-see approach. DJIA and Nasdaq futures markets are also flat and represent a market that is fully content to bask in the glow of its record-breaking year. European markets are also flat and represent a reaction to Wall Street’s activity but are exercising caution due to light activity and the lack of new data. Markets from either continent represent not fear but discipline—traders are booking gains and taking no chances as they close out the year.
Wall St. is currently in the midst of what is commonly referred to as the “Santa Claus Rally,” where the S&P 500 typically makes conservative but consistent market moves over the final five trading days of the year and into the first two of the next, as reported in the Stock Trader’s Almanac. Traditionally, the S&P 500 has posted an average +1.3% return during this period. This trend, accompanied by the relative attractiveness of the market due to lower volatility and strong one-year performance, does not urge market players to go all out but rather to remain bullish on the market. The S&P 500 is presently up 17.7% on the year, the Dow is at +14.5%, and the Nasdaq leads the pack at +22.2%.
Futures are reflecting the calm sentiment in the U.S. on the European side, supported by dovish monetary policy and decent performance during Q4 in major economies such as Germany, France, and the UK. Nonetheless, similar to the U.S., a lack of liquidity, trading hours during holidays, and the absence of economic events are hindering the markets to make any further advances. European investors are waiting for more clarity on economic conditions post the publication of European Central Bank minutes and inflation numbers in early January before making any moves. Traders in both markets are also looking forward to the minutes of the Fed’s meeting in December, which are due to be published on Wednesday. The minutes might affect future prospects for rate cuts in Q1 of 2026 and provide further insight into how the Fed perceives inflation as being either in control or still sticky enough to be handled in a delicate manner. Until this data is available, all futures markets are expected to trade in a silent manner due to positioning and PMSI rather than any macroeconomic changes. Economic calendars are expected to be light and trade volumes are expected to be low as investors are expected to hold their positions in 2026 and wait for clarity in the new year.
Major Index Performance as of Monday, 29 Dec 2025
- S&P 500: Trading at 6,909.79, flat, consolidating near all-time highs.
- Nasdaq Composite: Trading at 23,561.84, slightly lower, as mega-cap tech consolidates gains.
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: Trading at 48,442.41, holding firm, led by industrials and defensives.
- Russell 2000: Trading at 2,541.12, showing modest strength in small-cap cyclicals.
The Magnificent Seven & the S&P 500
The ‘Magnificent Seven’ – Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, Meta, Alphabet, and Tesla – are currently holding up well at or near year-end highs, although relative performance within the subset is trending apart. Tesla and Meta are experiencing gentle selling pressure on margin worries and AI hypersaturation, while Nvidia and Apple remain at the forefront. This subset has been responsible for most of the S&P 500’s advance during 2025, although the current decoupling may portend that gains could be limited through the end of the year and into January.
Forces Driving the Market Movement – Monday, December 29, 2025
As U.S. and European markets approach the final trading days of the calendar year, market sentiment is influenced by a combination of policy expectations, geopolitical developments, and thinning liquidity associated with the end of the year. Key driving forces are now influencing market action on Friday.
1. Fed Policy Outlook and Pending Home Sales
As the minutes from the Federal Reserve are set to come out on Wednesday, the markets are taking a cautious stance as they look for a dovish shift in 2026. The release concerning the Pending Home Sales figures today will surely point to the cooling-down of the housing market, hence paving the way for low interest rates in 2026. The environment with a softening tone with the macros and a steady level on the inflation charts remains a positive influence on the equity markets, as traders are on the lookout for potential dovish shifts from the discussions within the Federal Reserve.
2. Trump’s Foreign Policy and Market Risk Appetite
President Trump’s holiday agenda, which has featured airstrikes in Nigeria, extensions of the Venezuelan oil blockades, and further comments related to a potential peace plan in the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, has injected market chatter about the return of geopolitics into 2026. While these events are not directly market-moving in today’s light trading day, they do indicate a risk-aware environment that has seen defense stocks and energy stocks incorporate the role of President Trump.
3. Thin Liquidity and Sector Rotation
Markets are currently in the final stages of the “Santa Claus rally,” which historically represents a period of strength. This Santa Claus rally has, however, been rather tame due to the light trading volumes and the latest sector rotation into the defensive assets of gold, which continues to break above the $2,200 level in the midst of market uncertainty. Investors are also making portfolio adjustments in light of the tax season in order to see divergent actions within the portfolios of both growth and value stocks, as European and U.S. markets are currently hovering at all-time highs.
In sum, the market mood today is one of quiet resilience, with a caveat for cautious Fed-watching, geopolitics, and end-of-year tech flows. The markets are poised for a muted start, with players closing out a solid year while looking ahead to the first major event of 2026: policy and earnings.
Digesting Economic Data
The Trump Tweets and Its Implications
Donald Trump’s holiday messaging this year was anything but traditional. What began with Christmas-themed events quickly morphed into a high-octane political barrage — mixing religious justification for military operations, economic rhetoric, and global diplomacy into one assertive media blitz. The most provocative move came on Christmas Day, when Trump ordered airstrikes on ISIS camps in Nigeria, declaring them a defense of Christians. The White House confirmed the strikes involved ship-launched missiles, stirring controversy for injecting religious framing into a foreign military operation. Nigeria itself quickly denied any religious motive, exposing diplomatic tensions. At the same time, Trump blended Santa NORAD calls with aggressive political messaging, used year-end speeches to slam past administrations, and reasserted his “America First” doctrine. His decision to rename the Kennedy Center and close federal offices during the holidays only added fuel to criticism that he’s reshaping cultural institutions in his image.
However, it’s not all about image. Trump’s foreign policy machine is roaring throughout three different continents. Trump declared that Ukraine and Russia are “closer than ever to peace,” articulated a nearly complete plan for peace in Ukraine at 95%, and advocated for the establishment of a demilitarized economic zone in Donbas. Meanwhile, he reinforced his commitment to “military oil blockades” aimed at Venezuela, enforced by the U.S. Coast Guard via “gunboat diplomacy,” and racked up a win in Honduras with a Trump-supported victor. These belligerent policies are designed to show the world the power of America, though experts think they’re just setting themselves up for failure. European countries are nervous, the Latin American community is divided, and Trump’s conception of foreign policy blends war with politics, with even the most ardent Trump supporter nervous regarding the politicization of the Federal Reserve, as Trump continues to demand a Fed head who submits to rate cuts.
Back in the USA, however, the DOJ quietly issued a bombshell with new Epstein docs related to Trump’s historic flights and over a million docs still to be processed. Although no charges have been issued, the timing amid a politically charged holiday week has revived questions. Trump’s administration deflected it, instead highlighting a promise of $1,776 bonus payments to U.S. troops in 2026, declaring a new year that will usher in “America’s economic boom.” Some say that instead of strengthening America, this holiday media blitz was instead a campaign tactic meant to overshadow the headlines with Trump as peacekeeper and warmaker, reformer and savior. Markets, on the other hand, are trying to absorb the two-pronged approach by Trump regarding lower rates and more aggressive geopolitical strategies. With open pressure on the Fed, now calling for the appointment of the next Fed chair to share his economic ideology, combined with intensified global rivalries and displays of military strength, the expectation for volatility is rising. As for the market, the question is how the economic strategy on lower rates, the supply of energy, or foreign relations would be altered if Trump were to be reinstated. Only time will now reveal if further Trump governance translates into triumph or turmoil.
Jobless Claims Signal Labor Friction, Not Collapse
Continuing claims increased to about 1.92 million, a steady increase that suggests extending unemployment durations, as opposed to layoffs. Though initial claims are still low in the low 200,000 level, this mismatch has implications. The fact that initial claims are low, but continuing claims are high, signals that jobs are being created at a gradually slower pace, not a breaking pace. Employers are just being choosier in hiring, jobs are taking a long time to fill, and workers are staying unemployed for an increasingly lengthy period. This is typical of a late cycle, where labor tighterness decelerates but avoids a recession.
However, simultaneously, the reduction in initial claims also suggests that the labor market is still sound at its foundation. The less new layoffs indicate that despite holding back on incremental hiring, companies are shielding their key staff members. Simultaneously, low layoffs and a rise in continuing claims point to productivity pressures and margins. This should naturally lead to a gradual deceleration in wage growth, alleviating cost push inflation for companies, but demand is certainly not drying up. This is good news for markets that see less need for intense policy rate cuts while also ensuring earnings visibility for companies with strong operating leverage.
With this context in mind, we believe that Microsoft (MSFT) is currently undervalued compared with the trend in the labor market data. As companies reduce the rate of hiring, they augment their outlays in software and cloud infrastructure and in automations so that they can derive maximum productivity from the least number of people. Microsoft’s enterprise software solutions and the application of artificial intelligence in these solutions are direct beneficiaries of the productivity trend and not of the growth in the number of workers.
Dollar Weakness Reshapes Valuations
The U.S. dollar is among currencies that have recorded one of the poorest performances over the past year, ranking close to the bottom of G10 currencies. Looking at the data, there is evidence of a broad trend of depreciation of the U.S. dollar, as opposed to a volatility event. The factors contributing to depreciation include fiscal pressures, narrowing interest rate differentials, as well as persistence of twin deficits. All these pressures affect the value of the U.S. dollar, indicating a rebalancing of the global system from a strong U.S. dollar.
Macroeconomically speaking, a weak dollar supports easier global financial market conditions but increases the risks of imported inflation. On the short horizon, it is a positive translation aid for multinationals based in the U.S., as well as a competitive advantage abroad. A weak dollar is also a market signal reflecting scrutiny over policy credibility and fiscal management. Markets are increasingly looking ahead with anticipation of possible changes in policy early in 2026. Oversold market conditions in the dollar could set the stage for sharp countertrend movements if market expectations shift.
However, in this setting, we view Apple as an underappreciated play on the currency regime. The fact that it earns so much of its revenue internationally, outside of the United States, means that the weakening dollar helps drive earnings. Analysts need to focus on international revenue growth, currency-adjusted estimates, and supply chain price realization. The fact that the dollar could structurally remain weak, even as demand trends improve, helps big exporters with pricing power and solid balance sheets.
Labor Sentiment Cracks as Hiring Momentum Slows
A closely observed labor market sentiment indicator based on a consumer survey is at its weakest level since the beginning of 2023, with a narrowing gap between families that rate jobs as plentiful and those that rate jobs as hard to find. This indicator is not a measure of layoffs; it is a measurement of confidence in re-employment. The steady trend since mid-2024 indicates that workers are increasingly anticipating a prolonged job search, a trend that has always occurred before a slow increase in unemployment.
The significance of this signal is that it has historically been associated with Turning Points in the labor market. As sentiment has weakened, unemployment has already moved from the low 4% level to mid-4%, indicating that confidence has been falling for five straight months, further reinforcing the message that households have become cautious about income prospects. This does not mean that it will suddenly be worse, but it does mean that jobs growth, wage growth, and more defensive consumer spending can be expected in early 2026.
Within this setting, Walmart is seen as being undervalued on the basis of the labor indicator. As consumers become less confident in their jobs, they begin to trade down, emphasize essentials, and look for leadership on prices – all areas where Walmart is gaining market share. This is because its size, pricing, and supply chain strength enable it to shield margins despite any shift in volumes. Analysts need to track same-store sales growth, private label growth, and inventory turns.
GDP Performance Masks Productivity-Based Disinflation
The latest national accounts data show that growth in the third quarter was well above trend, thanks to the sharp pick-up in labor productivity and low compensation growth. The implication of this is critical, as output outpaced compensation, causing unit labor costs to approach flat to negative growth. This currently represents the easiest way to disinflate. Productivity growth can decline, reducing the pressure on inflation without having to destroy demand. The core prices are sticky but remained muted, supporting the notion that inflation eased through productivity gains rather than through slower growth.
However, not all expansionary forces were equally resilient. A significant amount of the headline expansion came from trade, where imports softened more than exports. At the same time, income-related growth measures trailed production-related ones, hinting that consumers and businesses are as yet unable to reap the full rewards of the headline expansion. The split has significance because it shows, first, that even as inflation dynamics are improving, dynamism could be less strong than the headline GDP numbers, and second, it translates into a productivity story, as against a demand story.
In this light, we view Microsoft as undervalued compared to the broader macro cue. Productivity growth inherently drives enterprise software, cloud optimization, and AI efficiency spend. With businesses looking to secure more for each dollar spent on labor, the demand pivot will accrue to technologies that automate and shrink costs. Instead, analysts need to zoom in on enterprise cloud growth, AI monetization momentum, and operating margin expansion. If productivity continues to lead as a growth driver, efficiency enablers will likely lead the pack.
Upcoming Economic Events
USA Pending Home Sales m/m
One of the most closely watched indicators of the housing market, Pending Home Sales (month-over-month data), is set to release soon. As one of the leading indicators of future market activity, the data represents existing-home sales signed contracts and generally precedes actual home sales by 1-2 months. Today, in the current macro environment, where rates, credit, and market psychology have created a complex web of relationships, this indicator has important ramifications for the macro environment in terms of the willingness of the public to allocate capital to long-duration assets in the face of Fed uncertainty, according to Zaye Capital Markets.
- If the actual figure comes higher than the forecasted number, this indicates that housing demand is stabilizing and even reversing despite high rates. It is likely that the markets will turn to a more positive outlook since it confirms that consumers do not fully withdraw when faced with tighter financial conditions. One will undoubtedly notice rising homebuilder stocks, mortgage servicing companies, and suppliers of building materials coinciding with this event. The markets will take this data as a confirmation that all is not lost since safe assets like Treasuries will come under pressure.
- However, in case the reading falls short of expectations, it would accentuate the hesitation of buyers, which would be attributed to the affordability issues and higher rates of borrowing. As a result, the stocks of homebuilders and other companies relating to the industry might experience some pressure, along with rerouted investments into defensive sectors because of the fear of slow demand growth. The reduced sales of homes would lower the mobility of consumers and expenditure on bigger purchases like furniture and renovation.
Bottom line: The upcoming Pending Home Sales data will offer a clearer glimpse into whether consumers’ behavior in housing markets is recovering into year-end or preparing for what might be a further tightening scenario. In either case, this data point will help dictate relevant sector leadership and related earnings guidance into Q1 2026.
Earnings
Earnings Reported Recap — (24-Dec-2025)
ProCaps Group, S.A. (PROCFD) No earnings were reported on December 24, 2025. Although the company was listed on earnings calendars, the Christmas holiday resulted in market closures and the absence of an official earnings release, filing, or press update on that date. As a result, there were no confirmed figures for revenue, earnings, or guidance. For investors, this is important context rather than a negative signal. In holiday-shortened periods, smaller and mid-cap companies often defer earnings communication to avoid thin liquidity and muted market response. Analysts should now focus on the next confirmed reporting window, paying close attention to margin trends, balance-sheet repair progress, and cash flow sustainability once results are formally released.
Earnings Due Today (29-Dec-2025)
- RCI Hospitality Holdings, Inc. Earnings due today place focus squarely on discretionary spending behavior and operating leverage. Investors should watch same-store sales performance, cost controls tied to labor and compliance, and free cash flow generation. With consumer confidence uneven, commentary around traffic stability and margin resilience will likely matter more than headline revenue growth. Balance-sheet flexibility remains a key variable for valuation sensitivity.
- Immersion Corporation also reporting today, Immersion’s results will be viewed through the lens of licensing durability and intellectual property monetization. Investors should focus on royalty revenue stability, contract renewals, and any updates on licensing pipeline visibility. In a selective tech spending environment, forward guidance around recurring licensing income and margin sustainability will be critical in shaping post-earnings sentiment.
At Zaye Capital Markets, we see today’s earnings as informational rather than market-defining, offering signals on consumer resilience and IP-driven revenue quality as liquidity normalizes after the holiday.
Stock Market Overview – Monday, 29 Dec 2025
U.S. equities started the final trading week of the year on a tentative footing as trading activity continues to be subdued in the wake of holiday periods. With the market close to all-time highs, the majority of the major indexes are currently treading water on minimal trading activity and the absence of any macro-driven triggers at the end of the year. This scenario, as far as Zaye Capital Markets is concerned, represents an environment where liquidity drying up and profit-taking dominate over risk appetite.
Stock Prices
Economic Indicators and Geopolitics
As there are not many major data points being released in the current market environment, market attention remains on the potential Fed rate cuts in the initial part of 2026. The relatively mild market environment, along with a sentiment of hopeful inflation deceleration, has allowed stock markets to remain steady. Markets are also in a stabilized environment with no major sharp shifts in the international events sector. As long as bond yields do not fluctuate and Fed expectations are dovish, risk markets will most likely remain where they are.
Latest Stock News
- $NBIS is on track to deliver approximately $3.4B in revenue in 2026 and end the year with approximately $8B ARR, poised to be the leading cloud utility for the AI era.
- Breaking: MIRAE Asset is in acquisition talks for Korbit, South Korea’s fourth largest crypto exchange, for between 100-140B won (~$70-100 million), which is indicative of increased institutional investment in digital infrastructure.
- $NVDA is the backbone of the AI economy. The CEO, Jensen Huang, stated that the biggest standouts are the people who use AI to augment their work, not just answer questions. As joblessness in the 20-24 age group increases to 9.2 percent, this information is not trivial. We continue to remain ahead with Hopper’s superiority over the competition, with Blackwell and Rubin not yet at full speed.
- $AAPL currently makes about $300M/day in its high-margin Services business, which has been driven by its 2B device ecosystem. Hardware makes a user, and Services leverage that user.
- INTC showed the EUV equipment installed at Fab 52, with the production capacity above 40K wafers a month, outscaling the Arizona presence of TSMC. Intel’s manufacturing resurgence is starting to take form.
- $GOOGL The Gemini product from holding company Alphabet Inc., popularly known as Google, saw its market share rise from 5% to 18% of GenAI web traffic, while ChatGPT’s market share decreased from 87% to 68%.
Top 15 Growth Performers of 2025:
- $PL +379%
- $IREN +310%
- $OPEN +276%
- $OKLO +262%
- $MP +242%
- $ASTS +241%
- $MU +238%
- $ONDS +231%
- $CIFR +227%
- $HOOD +217%
- $NBIS +216%
- $JMIA +212%
- $QBTS +201%
- $RKLB +177%
- $PLTR +150%
The Magnificent Seven & the S&P 500
The ‘Magnificent Seven’ – Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, Meta, Alphabet, and Tesla – are currently holding up well at or near year-end highs, although relative performance within the subset is trending apart. Tesla and Meta are experiencing gentle selling pressure on margin worries and AI hypersaturation, while Nvidia and Apple remain at the forefront. This subset has been responsible for most of the S&P 500’s advance during 2025, although the current decoupling may portend that gains could be limited through the end of the year and into January.
Major Index Performance as of Monday, 29 Dec 2025
- S&P 500: Trading at 6,909.79, flat, consolidating near all-time highs.
- Nasdaq Composite: Trading at 23,561.84, slightly lower, as mega-cap tech consolidates gains.
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: Trading at 48,442.41, holding firm, led by industrials and defensives.
- Russell 2000: Trading at 2,541.12, showing modest strength in small-cap cyclicals.
Zaye Capital Markets maintains that it has been a positioning trade all along rather than a momentum trade and would encourage investors to be careful in their selections based upon factors related to cash flows and balance sheet strengths going into 2026 Q1. Risk-on trade positions would require a careful and non-complacent strategy in their progressions.
Gold Price: Why Is Gold Trading Near $4,500 Amid Trump Strikes and Economic Slowdown?
The spot price of gold is at present above $4,515 per ounce and holding at historic highs as demand for safe-haven assets rises in lockstep with rapidly changing global threats and deteriorating signals of the U.S. economic outlook. As analysts at Zaye Capital Markets, we are able to identify that the latest series of global crises—followed of course by President Trump’s Christmas Day bombing campaign in Nigeria, declared as part of a religious defense strategy—has precipitated an extreme burst of safe-haven positioning. And as President Trump’s aggressive end-of-year rhetoric covers military growth repositioning, monetary system remaking, and oil lock-ups in the wake of conflict in South America, gold has re-emerged in its historic role as safe-haven protection for investment assets facing market and policy volatility. While the administration now seems poised to move to a strategy of hawkish global positioning in tandem with demands for radically dovish monetary system realignment at the Fed, investors are now positioning for a 2026 global environment in which conflict volatility, inflationary tailwinds, and central bank dependency will be defining factors. The Pending Home Sales report set to hit markets today may become a trigger-point for further acceleration in safe-haven sales of gold to the dollar: in this scenario, failure to meet market forecasts will certainly intensify gold’s safe-haven positioning in coming weeks, and in any case will be insufficient to slow the upward trend as global crises spiral out of control in response to administration incursions in this newly hawkish global position—since no factor representing such aggressive American strategy could possibly counter effectively in these circumstances the rapidly changing global crisis environment of deepening global crisis and possibly oil volatility in South America and Nigeria. Still, recent labor and sentiment-related statistics also continue to provide a supporting floor price for gold. The number of continuing claims last week jumped to 1.923 million, reflecting ongoing frictions in the labor market, while consumer confidence fell for the fifth consecutive month, pushing the labor differential in the Conference Board measure to its lowest level since early 2023. This deterioration in public attitudes toward jobs, together with Trump’s renewed public campaign against the Fed to appoint a rate-cut-sympathetic Chairman, is adding to the already building thesis of a near-term easing cycle. As real yields approach a flat line and the credibility of fiscal policy faces mounting pressure, gold hedging by institutions is accelerating not merely to protect against specific events, but to provide a store of value in an economy undergoing a structural shift toward a “personalized” partisan approach to global policy. At Zaye Capital Markets, we believe gold’s sustenance above $4,500 is a result of the simultaneous interaction of three interdependent factors: geopolitical tension, uncertainty surrounding monetary policy, and a structural shift in investment reallocation toward hard assets. Unless Trump’s plans internationally and domestically undergo a radical shift toward a stabilizing trajectory, it is likely that the emerging cycle will create a favorable outlook toward continued strengthen, inventory building, and long-term positioning in gold through Q1 ‘26 and beyond.
Oil Prices: Why Are Oil Prices Stuck Near $60 Despite War Tensions and Trump Energy Moves?
Oil prices are being held within a tight band with Brent current around $61.20 a barrel while WTI is trading near $57.25. This represents a conflicted market torn between the increasing geopolitics risks on one hand and the logistics of continued supply on the other. This current price rise comes about amidst market sentiment being fueled by renewed upheavals in the Middle East together with infrastructure challenges unfolding in the Russia-Ukraine conflict zone. All these are reviving risk premiums in the various Energy sectors. For us at Zayed Capital Markets, we’re witnessing a perfect struggle between the short-term fear-driven surges and the long-term fundamentally-driven sell signals. Recent updates from the IEA indicate a continued supply gap up into early 2026. Meanwhile, non-OPEC+ suppliers—particularly the U.S. crude spot market—are forecasted to retain strong output even in the face of lower spot prices. Recent internal debates on output cut scenarios organized by OPEC have so far failed to agree on specific output cuts. To this end, meanwhile, infrastructure challenges such as export chokepoints in the otherwise major producer nation of Kazakhstan related to severe weather disruptions are offering a slight boost. Meanwhile, a current combined net effect is that storage stocks remain on a continued rise. All this caps the market from drifting further above $65. President Trump’s holiday-week approach brings an added level of short-term volatility to the table. His administration’s aggressive foreign policy, including airstrikes in Nigeria, a strengthened Venezuelan oil blockade, and an assertive Middle East diplomacy push for energy corridors, brings geopolitics-driven volatility historically supportive of the price of oil. Still, there’s a measured response from the market, in the process appreciative of the fact that Trump’s agenda has not functioned to limit market physical supply in material ways yet. With U.S. economic fundamentals now flagging in terms of demand, losses from economic data have so far included yesterday’s labor market numbers and an accompanying set of indicators pointing to reduced confidence in the consumption of gas and diesel fuel, especially in transport sectors of the economy. And with Pending Home Sales set for release later today, expectations of an unexpected decline would further support macro-driven pressures against crude, firmly positioning the commodity expectancies on the bearish, rather than the bullish, side of the equation for demand fundamentals. A positive surprise might lend a temporary boost, but the underlying indicators pointing to oversupply in the market would not soon change, in our opinion here at Zaya Capital Markets, still firmly seeing prices staying in the $60 neighborhood unless there’s a significant supply disruption from a crisis hotspot in geopolitics or an unexpected boost in economic fundamental indicators.
Bitcoin Prices: Why Is Bitcoin Breaking Above $90K Despite ETF Outflows and Holiday Illiquidity?
Bitcoin has now formally breached back above the $90,000 mark, currently trading at $90,097 as of the 29th of December, 2025, with levels of support being built around the $87,877 region while session highs have touched $90,325. With this +2.53% appreciation of BTC, crypto trading floors again see renewed interest, especially following a demoralizing period of sideways trading, tax loss sales, and four consecutive days of spot Bitcoin ETF outflows in excess of $782 million. Although this latter trend of spot ETF withdrawals has been previously drags on price, the breach above the significant psychological level can now be seen to indicate that the institutional rebalancing process has waned, with the beginnings of this year’s positioning now being set in motion despite the low holiday trading activity being currently observed. Since BTC has now managed to break free from the gravitational pull of the $87,000 level of support, the bulls will now seek to effect a decisive recovery of the $92,000-$95,000 zone of resistance, previously thwarting further advancement earlier in the month.
Trump’s aggressive pace of messaging throughout the holiday week, covering everything from military strikes in Nigeria and Venezuela to calls for lower interest rates from the Federal Reserve, has sparked the market’s transition back to themes of U.S. macro leadership and energy security. For Bitcoin, this means the bar is raised. Historically, government intervention and turmoil abroad have led to increased volatility in the crypto market, though thus far, BTC’s response has been conservative. Nonetheless, the return to $90,000 levels with such low market liquidity, high levels of “noise” around politics, and institutional conservatism demonstrates that BTC remains, at this point, not only a safe haven asset but also a risk asset. Yesterday’s economic announcements, featuring tempered housing markets and sticky inflation numbers, only added to the confusion surrounding the Fed’s upcoming policies. Trump’s statement regarding the performance of the current head of the Fed, along with demands for rate cuts, is effectively crafting a void in ideology surrounding Fed policies, where Bitcoin tends to flourish. If the new economic releases throughout the day continue to verify the slowing pace of the American economy, expect to see continued momentum towards BTC as the hedge asset of choice for those pursuing hedging plans to kick off 2026.
ETH Prices: Why Is Ethereum Price Rising Toward $3,100 as ETF Optimism and Whale Signals Build?
The current pricing for Ethereum (ETH) is at $3,039.10, up more than 3% within the past day, with increased trading volume around the break-out level of $3,000. This signals an important psychological level recaptured as market players rebalance after the volatility witnessed in the Christmas week amid low market conditions. Data from Lookonchain and Santiment on-chain analyses reveals “whale” market dynamics are heavily bullish, with more than $100 million worth of ETH accumulated by non-active wallets re-engaging after months of dormancy, symbolizing institutional buying momentum. Simultaneously, “speculative liquidity” driven by possible approval of spot ETF products for ETH in Q1 of 2026 fuels market optimism on the asset. Industry sources claim that backroom negotiations with the SEC are well underway between market giants BlackRock and Fidelity, symbolizing optimism on the possible regulated-ETF listing of Ethereum on the heels of Bitcoin approval in the regulated markets. The pricing dynamics of the digital asset currently trend towards both technical and basic demand linked to the expanding application domains of Ethereum, including tokenized finance and staking platforms. Modest dovish Fed expectations strengthen the bullish case for ETH, as market players take on beta assets despite the inflationary supply conditions.
Further contributing to the momentum is the macroeconomic environment, with holiday-stabilized markets and Trump’s strong foreign policies putting risk premiums in volatile investments such as crypto. Yesterday’s lackluster U.S. economic data certainly met the stable conditions, with the possibility that this Pending Home Sales data, if negative, might further foster next Q1 rate cuts, thereby helping to ETH prices. Meanwhile, ETH/BTC markets are also strengthening, as historical precedents have long suggested Ethereum-led altseason rotations as ETH/BTC strengthens. Furthermore, market moods have improved with news from CryptoQuant that overall Ethereum deposits have been declining, as traders might be preparing for further gains. In our view at Zaye Capital Markets, Ethereum’s re-acceleration above the robust level of $3,000, with the advancement of ETFs and the resurgence of whale buying, indicate the strong fundamental buy now supporting the asset class, and this might continue well passed the holidays and, for better or worse, well into 2026.
